Whatever the case, a wounded ISS will have been fairly rotten luck. Back in 2017, scientists from NASA and a Russian space contractor put the odds of this worst-case scenario at 1 in 121. As of late 2025, NASA told WIRED the risk of debris causing a depressurization event in any six-month period was somewhere between 1 in 36 and 1 in 170.
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Author(s): Xichuan Liao, Haipan Xiang, Rongyang Qiu, Yangchun Chen, Yong Liu, Ning Gao, Fei Gao, Wangyu Hu, Huiqiu Deng